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Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Hot in trade and plate Food
Traders are using doomsday psychology in dealing with the trade here, I frequently hear them saying foodgrains and edible commodities as a tangible source or margin in near future when armageddon comes on earth, however there are also other significant reasons the best one is world populaiton increasing more and more stomachs to be filled every day the food stocks or commoditiy stocks are bound to reach high...not in near future ie 3 months then definately in 1 year or so.... simple math and to top of it Bloomberg.com ran a story quoting Brazil claiming that indian sugarcare produce is not upto mark so sugar price is bound to shoot 20% lets c whether the forecast is true or not but as far as i know the rain fall has been good India which is always the primary cause for crop failure however same cannot be said about future when rainfalls are predicted to be lesser and lesser... dammn global warming...
My bet would be starting Aqua farm or Pisciculture growing tuna fish in farms using sea water ... is the bet business right now... world needs food make it and supply it...
Deal made on the 13th hole....obsession of golf
Ever since i came to united states I have always heard a saying " business deals are done on 13th hole" being from a 3rd world country golf hasnt had ever been formally or informally introduced to me nor understood why wealthy men in western countries frequent golf courses more often then the middle classs ? why is golf treated as a formal sport on ESPN when the physicall skill is minimal rather negligible unless u consider a swing form of strenious exercise or stolling in park to collect tiny ball from woods as some sort of physical exercise. I however donot consider that it is devoid of skills, rather think it falls in that category, however amongst the skill oriented sports like rifle shooting or archery or figure skating i dont find golf to be amongst the challenging.
When i moved to jersey and started living near a golf course where i go every day to jog, my curiosity towards the game grew stronger as to what makes this game so famous !!! however when i observed few people it struck to me as simple three fold strategy what makes deals on 13th hole
Reason 1:
It gives a sense of exclusivity to those who are playing rather the rich are left there alone hitting ball with a stick training their eye tirelessly towards a hole in a ground trying best to calculate humidity , flow of the wind and slope to hit the ball.......it was all about exclusivity...they are left there alone in their own world disturbed by no one taken care by all the country club the subordinates etc etc.....
Reason 2:
Playability : When i was growing up my mum and dad said that tennis is a rich man's sport didn realise much till i saw Nantucket and Hamptons full of back yard tennis courts , now tennis is a pretty strenious and skill full sport however its too much for the rich so an easier way out is play golf u just got a hit the ball somewhere....
Reason 3:
Inherited: I think Golf has become an icon sports for rich and famous to play and clear their minds of to think about how to make more money. And the same habits are carried out by their kids and their kids etcc......
I still dont think these may be sufficient enough reasons ..... gosh will ask some golfer on the golf course some day.....
Thursday, May 7, 2009
What direction is US heading ???
US was long considered to be a defiant force politically economically and Millitarily, a systematic events starting from sept 9/11 changed this country unfortunately for a negative direction, although i must put a caveat that this is still the best country in the world.. following sequence puts me a in a introspection mode
Winds of change
1"Never before war was fought on US homeland in which 3000 people died " Condoleeza Rice
2 Never before in history on US hurricane size of hurricane Katrina caused so much human and material damage which exposed country's vulnerable , some critics say 3rd world country were better dealing with the katrina aftermath then US statement is disputed but some cases of looting by police officers, curfew, martial law, gang violence etc aggravated during this period
3 The war which is now termed as unnecessary was initiated
4 Reduction in US political clout in europe and middle east a lot of resentment due to war and incoherent administration ..i think its a debatable point
5.Systematic failure of Banking system due to greed of few banking institutions which have now ceased to exist or under govt survelliance
6.Imposition of taxes for outsourcing companies while spreading free trading little bit debatable . Where are we moving free global trade or protectionism..??...it is complete obfuscation to me
7 Free general healthcare for all or reduction in health insurance costs .... completely obfuscation ???
8 Getting directed on economic policies from China ..........ooh yea i forgot they hold max number of treasury notes.... can hold us ransom anytime
9 Falling levels of literacy and education structure ... absolute lack of skilled talent pool
10 Increase in corruption in both higher and lower levels of governmental hierarchy
11. Polarization on basis of religion etc
Last time i checked up on internet was these problems were similar to a 3rd world country agreed the standard of living and quality of living has not changed but yes but above noises sound very similar to a developing country.... these points cover all political millitary and economic clout reduction of US... country should buck up and work hard under current administration and restore its glory ... world need US to be strong in all three departments ....
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Fibonacci retracement
Fibonacci retracement
Fibonacci is a set of number sequence generated by adding up two numbers occuring in a number series for eg number series = 1 2 3 4 5
fibo series 1 1 3 5 8 13 etc
similarly stock also show a similar approach when point A goes to point B there is always a pressure of correction or retracement, how much will these retracement go there are three critical points 38.2%or original 50% and 61.x % as shown in the figure, so first resistance occurs at 38% and if it passes that 50% is next catch and thirdly 61.8 levels.
Next obvious question arises is how are we getting the percentages.... 3/5 ,5/8, 8/13 all generate a number around 0.618x
.382 = .618 squared
.500 = 1 ÷ 2, the second and third numbers in the series
.786 = square root of .618
1.000 = 1.618 x .618
1.272 = square root of 1.618
2.618 = 1.618 squared
.500 = 1 ÷ 2, the second and third numbers in the series
.786 = square root of .618
1.000 = 1.618 x .618
1.272 = square root of 1.618
2.618 = 1.618 squared
I am posting a video which describes in detail the workings of Fibo nacci retracement
Also go to Afraidtotrade.com where corey rosenbloom has posted some cool retracement scenarios... India's NIFTY
ref: swing-trade-stock.com
Find more videos like this on ChartWatchers
Also go to Afraidtotrade.com where corey rosenbloom has posted some cool retracement scenarios... India's NIFTY
ref: swing-trade-stock.com
Find more videos like this on ChartWatchers
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Buffet : Newspapers are Done !!!!
With new media encroaching webosphere twitterosphere blogosphere etc it has become painful for print media to gets its due. When Helen Mirren in State of Play (2009) says to Crowe that "Ms. Della Frye churns out a copy of news paper every hour through her blog" i was stunned , the fact that news papers are becoming quickly things of past but also with the effect of digital media on earning potential of a print media journalist someone like Russell Crowe character in the movie is becoming bleak day bye day.
Recently Ariana Huffington of huffington post and Tom Curley if i am not wrong of Associated Press were fueding on Charlie Rose on the ownershipf links, in lieu of Associated Press deciding to come down hard on its content users, but Arianna was pat in replying that links have become assets how well you monetize them is upto you giving example of MSNBC.COM and THEDAILYSOW.COM embbedable players who monetize.I agree with her people want to read the news where they like and not on AP or Reuters with due respect to the amount of journalism they do but thats the bitter truth. Today Buffet nailed the coffin saying that none in their sane minds would like to buy a news paper since news have become " free " !!! that a disruptive technology like internet has forced to change our lives and our livelihood.
However there are many ways the hard working journalists from AP or Reuters can earn their due I am putting one example of the monetizing ways of Reuters
A columns from Buffet's news conf from REUTERS :
Buffett offers bleak outlook for U.S. newspapers
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